Considering the number of issues Guyana continues to face with preserving the integrity of its electoral process, many commentators have said that the world’s latest oil producer is on the brink of becoming a dictatorship. But if this happens, it would be that much easier for ExxonMobil to have the government wrapped around its fingers, and for a much longer time, too says Petroleum Consultant and former Presidential Advisor, Dr. Jan Mangal.
During an exclusive interview, the consultant said that the presence of oil has ruined fragile democracies around the world, while noting that it seems Guyana will be the next country to be ruined. Dr. Mangal said that Exxon knows that if Guyana becomes a dictatorship it will have a government it can manipulate much easier and for a longer time because pariah states are isolated and are desperate for friends.
The consultant said, “If Guyana is led by an undemocratic and authoritarian government, one which does not respect the votes of the people, then Guyana will lose much more than the US$55 billion referenced in the recent report by Global Witness.” He added, “An undemocratic government will sell out Guyana even more because it will be isolated from the rest of the world and will give ExxonMobil everything it wants. In addition, an undemocratic government will not give the Guyanese people what they need and what they deserve.”
Further to this, Dr. Mangal argued that Exxon would win in such circumstances because Guyana would still be a money maker for its shareholders. He said that one should not be surprised that ExxonMobil is not helping Guyana in the fight for democracy since oil companies are comfortable doing business in failed states and war zones, and may even make more profits in such situations.
And while senior government officials from the American oil giant’s home country have reprimanded the APNU+AFC about the less that credible electoral process and even hinted at looming sanctions, Dr. Mangal was keen to note that ExxonMobil is unlikely to be caught in that crossfire. “They wouldn’t hurt one of their own,” the former Presidential Advisor said while adding, “The US State will be keen to stop Guyana descending into dictatorship via rigged elections, otherwise, they will have another little Venezuela on their hands. But ExxonMobil itself will be somewhat protected.”
Further to this, the international consultant said that Guyana has essentially found itself in a situation where the worst case scenario is playing out. In this regard, he said it is a case where an ethnically divided nation which at least enjoyed a fragile democracy, will now possibly see that democracy stolen from its people.
Dr. Mangal said Guyanese need to ensure this does not occur, otherwise Guyana will become an unstoppable train wreck. He said, “Our economy will go into a downward spiral, we will lose more of our oil revenue, the people and press will be abused by officialdom, our territory will be more vulnerable to Venezuela, etc. And where is Brazil, an important ally, in all of this? Have they not spoken out against the attempts at rigging the election? Brazil should have significant influence over the Coalition government.”
Dr. Mangal added, “The oil production should be stopped if we lose our democracy, otherwise the oil acts as food for dictatorship and will prolong our misery.”