According to one of the World Bank’s latest assessments of Guyana’s economic prospects in light of its petroleum reserves, it is projected that the new resource will result in almost 27,000 jobs being created by 2025. The financial institution specifically noted that the oil sector will create about 3,850 direct jobs and 23,100 indirect jobs by 2025, employing 0.7 and 3.9 percent of the workforce, respectively.
The financial institution was keen to note that the government has adopted a prudent approach to the development of local content but was keen to remind that the job-creating potential of the oil sector is limited by its capital- and skill-intensive nature while adding that Guyana’s small, undiversified manufacturing base is not capable of producing many of the sophisticated inputs the sector requires.
As oil exports rise, the bank said that the appreciation of the real exchange rate is expected to negatively impact the competitiveness of tradable sectors, a key symptom of Dutch disease.
It further noted that the country’s manufacturing and agriculture are likely to experience job losses as employment shifts toward the oil sector and non-tradable services.
Even though it is acknowledged that the new industry will create considerable levels of employment depending on its growth, the World Bank said it is critical that Guyana maintains focus on improving its civil services. The bank warned that oil and gas revenues will increase fiscal expenditures and raise expectations for better public service delivery. Meeting these expectations the institution said, will require strengthening the civil service by developing leadership capacity and inculcating a culture of strategic planning, professional management, and robust monitoring and evaluation.
In addition, the bank said that systematic use of training needs assessments could help close existing performance gaps and improving the quality of managers, including via the recruitment of international experts and members of the Diaspora.
