The Inter-American Development Bank has disclosed in its latest assessment of Guyana’s first-quarter performance that it projects oil exports will grow by an annual average of 48.5 percent over 2020–2023. The financial institution said this would certainly contribute to average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and government revenue growth rates of 17.1 and 6.7 percent, respectively by 2026.
The IDB further noted that government expenditures are estimated to grow by an average of 5.3 percent over the same period, contributing to a fall in the fiscal deficit from 7.4 percent in 2020 to 3.4 percent in 2026.
For the short and medium-term projections for 2021 and beyond, the IDB said these are positive, with GDP estimated to grow by 20.9 percent. This growth it said is potentially related to the assumption oil production will increase by 46.7 percent, from 74,300 barrels per day in 2020 to over 109,000 in 2021. As for the non-oil economy, the IDB said this is expected to rebound to 6.1 percent in 2021 based on the assumption of a phased re-opening of the economy, with services and construction growing by 5 percent and 9 percent, respectively.
Over the medium term, oil production is expected to continue driving GDP growth, the financial institution stated.
Thus far, Guyana has made over US$344M on its oil resources. The IDB projects that Guyana will likely close the year with US$500M in its Natural Resource Fund.
