Geopolitical Risk Practitioner, Semaj McDowell recently dubbed the escalating claims by Venezuela for Guyana’s Essequibo region as nothing but a means of distraction by President, Nicholas Maduro. The Venezuelan leader is expected to face off with Opposition Candidate, María Corina Machado in the 2024 elections.
In a statement shared on his LinkedIn, McDowell emphasized the significance of the brewing tensions coinciding with Venezuela’s upcoming elections, where President Maduro is confronting a serious challenge to his possible re-election from Machado. The new challenger recently called for the suspension of the December 3 referendum which seeks to annex the Essequibo region.
“I find it also very interesting and coincidental that this conflict is brewing as Venezuelan elections are nearing and Maduro is facing a real challenge to his regime from María Corina Machado,” he said.
Machado recently declared in a social media post, “Sovereignty is exercised, it is not consulted,” expressing her firm belief that the referendum on the Essequibo must be suspended. McDowell echoed this sentiment, underscoring the potential distraction the referendum poses amid Venezuela’s complex political, economic, and social climate leading up to the elections.
Machado had argued that the referendum could be detrimental not only to the defense of Venezuela’s territory but also in presenting a robust case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The referendum, in question, includes five questions that have raised concerns about Guyana’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Question Five, in particular, proposed the creation of a Venezuelan state in Guyana Essequibo, along with an accelerated plan to grant Venezuelan citizenship and identity cards to the Guyanese population. Such actions run counter to international law, which strictly prohibits the seizure and annexation of one country’s territory by another.
Guyana has expressed deep concerns, contending that Venezuela’s scheduled referendum, if conducted in its current form, could be interpreted as a de facto annexation of its territory. Consequently, Guyana is urging for the exclusion of several questions from the referendum.
It is worth noting that the ICJ will rule on Friday, December 1, on Guyana’s request for the provisional measures in relation to the referendum.
McDowell in his post emphasized the importance of diplomatic means in resolving the dispute, aligning with Machado’s stance that Essequibo’s acquisition should be pursued through diplomatic solutions rather than military intervention.
As the situation plays out, McDowell’s perspective sought to highlight the geopolitical risks surrounding Venezuela’s territorial ambitions, especially against the backdrop of a critical election period and international efforts for diplomatic resolution.
