Dear Editor,
Reference is made to a news article published in the December 19, 2023, edition of the Kaieteur
News, with the caption…” World Bank Report: As Guyana increases oil production yearly, citizens depend more on overseas relatives for financial help.”
It would appear that the article was deliberately framed in a manner to substantiate the notion that, despite the growth in the economy and increased oil production, sections of the population continue to increasingly rely on remittances to support their livelihoods. That, however, is a misrepresentation of the World Bank’s data.
As correctly indicated in the table, the World Bank’s remittance figures are estimated figures rather than the actual. Thus, a perusal of the Bank of Guyana Annual reports to ascertain the actual net inflows from remittance, showed that the World Bank’s estimates are overstated by 65% for the year 2011 and 41% for the year 2022 (see table 1 attached).
As shown in the chart, net inflows of remittance in 2011 represented 4.1% of GDP, which fell to 2.3% of GDP by the end of 2022. The year 2016 recorded the lowest net inflows of remittance of US$100 million representing 1.6% of GDP. The net inflows of remittance increased dramatically during the period 2017-2021, then reverted to a downward trend observed in 2022.
Notably, the increase of remittance net inflows during this period can be explained by two main events. First, with the change in Government in 2015, the former Government would have downsized the sugar industry which placed more than 7,000 households on the breadline, together with an estimated 30,000 households indirectly affected, coupled with the increased tax burden and lack of investments in the non-oil sector.
Secondly, in 2020 there was the infamous elections fiasco which lasted five months, compounded by the economic impact of the covid-19 pandemic, all of which would have created the situation that necessitated families seeking support from their families/relatives abroad.
Interestingly, however, the empirical evidence confirms that the net inflows of remittance relative
to GDP is actually on a downward trend based on the 2022 actual data, which is not surprising considering the developments taking place in the economy. This is in stark contrast to the misrepresented view as per the referenced news report herein.
Yours respectfully,
Joel Bhagwandin